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Will your favourite dram cost much more in a few years?

 
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CountDramcula
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:36 pm    Post subject: Will your favourite dram cost much more in a few years? Reply with quote

Evening All,

After partaking of a dram this winters eve, I'm pondering what the future holds for the pricing of more standard (non limited edition) bottles and the trajectory that any price increases may take.

I always stock up when there is an online or supermarket deal but whats interesting is that for some bottles, such as the Lagavulin 16, Bunnahabhain 12 and Deanston 18, when you look at the online price graphs from 2 or 3 years back, there seems to have been very little fluctuation, even when considering special offers.

It's obviously all about supply and demand and I imagine they've found what they believe to be a sustainable price that the market can bear whilst allowing for decent profits, but given inflation and the supposedly ever increasing demand for Scotch, do you feel that prices will hold firm for a while or should we brace for some demand/inflation driven Aberlour Abunadah level price increases?

Would be interested to know your thoughts.
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DillyT
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well one of the big ones that I used to drink lots of in the late 90's early 2000's is the Ardbeg 1977 and it was of the top of my head about £30 a bottle now look at where the price is Shocked
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CountDramcula
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DylanInYork wrote:
Well one of the big ones that I used to drink lots of in the late 90's early 2000's is the Ardbeg 1977 and it was of the top of my head about £30 a bottle now look at where the price is Shocked


Ouch! This is why I can't help but keep a few bottles of my faves in reserve, just in case prices go bonkers...
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Blackadder
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Limited releases are always going to increase in price over the years but it is difficult nowadays to predict what the prices of even the entry level whiskies from your favourite distilleries will be in 10 or 20 years.
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TheWM
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prices are going up and quality isn’t. I do stock up occasionally but more so I can compare bottlings of standard releases through the years.

But I don’t worry that much. I used to. I’m more interested in finding quality over quantity (I.e. decent independent bottles at say £60 rather than 2 bottles of *insert deal of the day here*)

Which is why leading to my original point I don’t have many ‘standard’ bottles open. Or as much whisky either, coming to think about it.

Long gone are the days that you can dram on older stuff without paying a premium. But doesn’t mean that value doesn’t exist, last years Talisker 8, for example. Just mix up what you consider to be ‘standard’ drams.
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Fergie
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still feel that the standard core range prices on most brands are creeping up with many 10 to 12 year olds now breaking through the £40 price mark now which I would have never believed 10 years ago and I don't think prices have peaked yet.
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CountDramcula
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blackadder wrote:
Limited releases are always going to increase in price over the years but it is difficult nowadays to predict what the prices of even the entry level whiskies from your favourite distilleries will be in 10 or 20 years.

The thing I wonder is how much the current crop of limited releases will actually be worth in a few years. Using the circa 30 quid original price of the Ardberg 77 Dylan mentioned as an example, I wonder how many were buying it to drink, vs collect...at that money I'd be drinking it rather than putting it in a cupboard too, so I'm guessing the lower number of unopened bottles must account for that price increase..

As WM said, quality is definitely slipping; spending 300 quid plus on an NAS limited release now, that will likely only sit on a shelf or do the rounds at auctions doesn't really appeal.

To me, the increase in the NAS thing plays into that a lot; I'd feel much more comfortable shelling out a decent sum on a well reviewed 30 year old scotch that I, or someone else could potentially enjoy one day, than I would forking out big bucks for something of undisclosed age that's never been reviewed as nobody has opened a bottle...

It seems now we've ended up with a situation where the boxes alone begin to account for the lions share of the price paid, especially with all this crystal bottle, gold plated cap nonsense we're seeing now; all beautifully presented in a block of wood bigger than the tree stump in your back garden...
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DillyT
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From what I remember about the 1977 was that everyone was drinking it as it was not a limited release and a very good price for it, but then almost over night it they said there was no more.
So I think the only bottles that where saved where the ones that where the ones left in the shops...
I know a friend that went into Oddbins (As was) and was chatting to one of the guys there who told him that they where running out and brought all 9 bottles they had and I think he still has 7 one of which is open Top Malt

So I think the ones that will increase in price are the popular normal bottlings that become discontinued as well as the limited bottlings but there is no way to tell which will give the best return.
But as everyone says only buy whisky you would be happy to drink that way you will always have a choice of bottles. Wink
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