Flood of whisky in the market?

[Diademo]

Ardmore Assist. Distillery Manager George Forsyth warns of a flood of whisky in the market:

"I think something will go wrong in the world and we will have a big problem. A flood on the market will follow, prices will be cut, and this is going to affect smaller companies as well."?

"I think we've reached the top of the hilltop. I think we'll just all find to come down off the top of the hilltop. That's my own personal feeling. I've been thinking that for a wee while. I think we've reached the summit. You can see that by some people cutting back to five days already."?

Interview: http://thespiritreceiver.weebly.com/george-forsyth---ardmore-part-1.html

[opelfruit]

Fingers crossed!

I don't expect there to be any price fall in older whisky, simply because of the demand (and lack of supply) of aged stocks, but a drop in the price of NAS whisky would be welcomed - especially those who price themselves above the age-stated entry levels.
_________________
"Too much of anything is bad, but too much good whisky is barely enough."

[Diademo]

: at the same time Clynelish has announced plans to double the Distillery capacity.

Clynelish Distillery is closing down for 10 months from spring next year for maintenance and upgrading work:
http://www.singlemaltlodge.com/blog/item/clynelish-distillery-will-temporarily-close-for-10-months

When visiting some Scottish distilleries in May, I was surprised with the sheer amount of optimism and faith in continuous growth, without questioning the market forces or remembering turbulent whisky history.

[Quaich1]

It is interesting to hear a distillery man (in the article) regardless of what distillery he represents, actually verbalize the possible reality of a "bursting of the bubble". It's usually just the consumers thinking about this happening. I'm sure there are some whisky executives late at night in their beds having nightmares about this happening and worrying it will happen in the light of day. The continuous price rise with NAS expressions is like your money in a helium balloon rising in the sky until you can hardly see it anymore and you can't catch it-an a propo analogy, isn't it?
_________________
"Always carry a large flagon of whisky in case of snakebite and furthermore always carry a small snake."
W.C. Fields (1880-1946)

[Bookie]

Personally I cant see the bubble (if there is one) bursting, historically whisky has had its ups and downs over the years, centuries even, but this time around it has experienced an UP during a world recession. Interest and prices may vary in the future but I feel the image, attitude and price of whisky has been repositioned and sales are still good even though we are still in a bad economic period. These enormous capacity whisky factory distilleries which have emerged in recent times will be to feed the blended whisky market and hopefully there will always be space for the smaller malt whisky distilleries to contribute there unique flavours to blends and supply the single malt whisky market.

[Quaich1]

[Diademo]

It's interesting situation: distilleries are rising production, some are even doubling it, there are many new ones hitting the market for the first time and at the same time sales volumes are stagnating for the third year in a row (most of decline is in blended segment).

Of course, there is shortage of older malts in the market but trend is clearly showing overall decline of the sales volume. It's natural that there's concern in the industry - the question is if there's enough anxiety to trigger the panic.

[eelbrook]

I could well imagine producers/retailers being forced to reduce the price of the 'staple' single malt whiskies found on supermarket shelves. That'd be brilliant, as there are still many very decent drinking drams amongst them.

At the other end of the scale, I would be staggered if values fall for the likes of closed distilleries, old vintages, and premium bottlings (eg Macallan 30). Demand seems to be increasing and stocks are ever dwindling.

Go look at the hammer prices achieved in Scotch Whisky Auctions' early auctions for premuum bottlings. Some are a fraction of currebt values.

[sorren]

The constant talk of this " whisky bubble " and if / when it will burst just rolls on and on.. Certain aspects will carry on going up, some prices will drop but not enough to make a real difference.. The bottom end of the core range will carry on as it is, a slightly higher starting price with lots of offers in the supermarkets as they try to shift stocks.. The older and more limited editions will continue to rise.. We will see a drop in certain second hand bottles and a rise in the "luxury " end of the re sale bottles.. The distillers will probably start to flood the market with cheaper no age statements bottles in order to shift younger maturing stocks if the markets do look unstable.. If the economy continues to recover people will carry on buying what is after all a " luxurious " product .. Whisky.. People will continue to speculate and buy bottles.. And just remember the saying what goes up must come down.. Then go right back up there.. If it slumps people will buy ready for it going back up.. This action will in its self force it to go back up..

[TheWM]

If the bubble bursts watch the big players simply put out less bottles in the short - medium term. Decreased supply = higher price. Then they will have older stock ready to put out at a premium price.